Carolina wins again, presumable because I have been advising betting against them

This was a strange game that took place in Germany for some reason. It was between to failing teams that apparently are jockeying for the worst team in the NFL award and although I had my reasons for backing the horse that I did, I was wrong in this one by a long shot.

The Giants were picked by Vegas odds to win the game by at least 7.5 points and I took that action and presumed that Carolina would do what they normally do and get completely blown out. The odds changed to 6.5 by the time the game started but I was grandfathered in at 7 and a half. That's just the way gambling works with most online sportsbooks.

I'm 7-3 on the year as far as my predictions are concerned and I am not going to change course right now just because of a couple of weeks in a row where it appears as though The Panthers suddenly remembered how to play football.

src

The way things started out in this game that I didn't bother to watch because of bad time zone issues, was that Carolina looked actually decent. I was surprised but then again, it seems like a lot of times when teams already realize that they cannot possibly make the playoffs that they seem to have nothing to lose and every now and then some brilliance shines though. Ok, there is also the fact that Carolina was playing against a seriously terrible team in the NY Giants to factor in as well.

This doesn't change the fact that the Panthers went up 10-0 before NY even got on the scoreboard and because that TD run was a long one, it is entirely feasible that it can be blamed on a bad coaching call or just sheer luck. Carolina continued, much to my surprise, to control almost every aspect of the game.

src

Despite the fact that I had resigned myself to a financial loss already by halfway through the 3rd quarter where the Giants were simply trying for a tie and certainly not trying to win by more than a single touchdown (which I needed for a payout) I was kind of happy to lose that money for one very real reason as a long-term Carolina fan: Bryce Young actually played with confidence and seems to be starting to understand how to work with this offense.

It is quite normal for a new QB to seriously struggle in the transition from college to professional football but Bryce seemed to be struggling more than most and it was more evident to the fans because of the fact that comparatively speaking, he is really tiny. I still think there is a ways to go before he is going to be willing to take big chances because I believe he is still shell-shocked from the number of interceptions he threw in the early part of the season before the head coach pulled him and started fielding reserve QB's. Once the season was already done and dusted, there was no reason to not let him get some practice in and I have noticed some real improvements in his form and control in the last 2 games.

I'm sure he is still very nervous out there though and it doesn't help that he doesn't really have anyone to pass to. As far as passing yards are concerned, Carolina is ranked nearly dead last. I suppose this could change by the end of the season but honestly, why bother?

The Panthers have a bye week next week but the next game they play will truly be a showcase of the best vs the worst as they exist on paper. The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs has an absolutely incredible defense and considering that Carolina has oh so very few offensive weapons I believe that whatever odds that Vegas comes up with, unless it is more than say 20, is a pretty safe bet. Some of the sites I have looked at aren't even accepting bets on a straight KC win, you will have to bet on the yet to be announces spread, which I predict will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 points. This isn't because KC can't beat them by more than that, but because they don't need to. I suspect that KC will play the game easy and protect their investments on the field instead of going all out.

My simple philosophy of negativity towards my favorite team has paid out for me. I have bet against Carolina in ever single game and have won more than I have lost. I have no intention of changing this strategy and will bet against Carolina on the spread come next week as well. I believe that KC has magnificent management and will actually play less hard in unimportant games. This is evidenced in their pre-season where the Chiefs went 0-3 losing to Jacksonville, Detroit and Chicago. Two of those teams are awful. KC knows what they are doing.