In response to my recent post, Sell in May and Go Away?, @httr4life posted (via SC09),
I wonder if there are any similar trends in the other direction in terms of months when STEEM historically goes up? |
So, I thought I'd take a look at monthly changes, and here's what I found. Data from CoinGecko. Visualization by PowerBI.
Today being September 11, the numbers for September, 2024 are obviously not complete yet.😉
I'm eyeballing these, so could be missing something but here are my observations. For the record, this is just for fun. I definitely don't believe that this has any predictive power.
First, it's interesting to note that January-April has seen fairly consistent monthly gains. Out of an eight or nine year stretch (2016/7-2024), each of those months has seen 5 or 6 monthly gains - though a few of those monthly gains round to 0. In contrast, the worst months have been May, June, August and September - each with 6 or 7 monthly losses out of 8 or 9 years (2016/7-2024). If this month manages to change direction during the next 19 days, then September will be the only month with all but 1 monthly losses.
Also, of the 7 complete years, 4 of them had 6 or more months that moved upwards: 2017 (8), 2020(7), 2021(7), and 2023(8).
Next, the longest sequences of consecutive monthly gains look to be March-June in 2017 and September-December in 2023. And, the longest sequence of consecutive monthly losses looks like July-December of 2018 (not quite matched by April-August, 2024. If September doesn't end above about $0.156 $0.161792, we'll tie it).
In total, I see 49 months that went up, and 53 months that went down - so, not far from 50%, which is what we would probably expect.
As before, this doesn't account for additional benefits that accrue to Steem/SP holders like interest and curation rewards.
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