东升西降？解析日本经济的过去、现在与未来”

去年有段时间，中国经济的坏消息不断，各种头部房企爆雷，各种信托金融产品也在爆雷，地方债的风险也在显现。与此同时，中国的邻国日本却表现得相当不错，股市甚至涨回了泡沫经济时代的高度，似乎要找回失落的三四十年。一些YouTube上的大V调侃说，确实是“东升西降”了。但这里的“东”指的是日本，“西”指的是中国，因为日本位于中国的东面。
然而，日本经济为什么会有失落的三十年？如今的日本经济真的重拾雄风了吗？要回答这个问题，首先就要搞清楚是什么造成了日本经济失落三十年。而如今这个情况，这个原因是否发生了改变。正好看到一个台湾YouTuber在YouTube上的节目谈这个问题。说实话，台湾YouTuber的节目大多风格非常幽默，通俗地把一些比较复杂的问题讲解得通俗易懂，观看效果比一些普通面向大陆观众的YouTuber要轻松得多。
首先还是要从著名的广场协议开始。在六七十年代，中国大陆还是闭关锁国，或者刚刚和美国开始接触，改革开放还在酝酿之中，而美国则发生了以半导体技术为主的科技革命。但是美国工人的人工成本太高，引发了美国企业的一大波产业转移。由于当时的中国大陆没有把经济建设和改革开放放在重点，这让日本和台湾捡了一个大便宜，经济飞速发展。特别是日本利用大财阀和低廉劳动力成本的优势，很快吸收了大量的美国产业转移，经济迅速发展。这就像改革开放之后的中国的经济发展历程提前预演了一遍。
到了八十年代，日本的制造业俨然已经要赶超美国，成为世界第二大经济体，美国市场上充满了日本制造的商品。虽然美国的工会对此现象非常不满，但美国的民众还是被低价的日本商品所吸引。而当时的美国也和现在的美国和中国一样，当时爆发了贸易战。不过，由于日本作为二战战败国的身份，实际上是受制于美国的，不拥有完全主权的国家实体。所以这场贸易战并非像现在中美贸易战那样互加关税的形式，而是美国和日本，包括德国签订了一个名为广场协议的条约，强制要求日元升值。这样，日本商品的成本增加，美国国产商品的竞争力得到提升。但日元升值也增加了日元的购买力，使得日本国内的消费激增。日本经济并没有因为出口的下滑而受到打击。这样看，广场协议并不是日本经济泡沫破裂的元凶。
真正的元凶是当时的政府借助日元升值的机会，滥发国债和日元，使得日元的利率极低，这刺激了人们进行投机投资的行为。人们发现，借钱投入股市和房地产，可以在短时间内获得更多的回报。于是，整个日本都开始脱实向虚，这才是泡沫形成的真正原因。几乎所有的泡沫都与人为影响和控制货币供应和贷款利率有关。当然，泡沫总有破灭的一天。泡沫破灭时，人们会发现之前的繁荣不过都是一场幻象。所有泡沫破灭带来了一个现象，就是人们会发现之前资产的价格是一个幻象，但投资时借下的债务却是实实在在的。于是人们开始进入为之前的债务买单的时间，就像现在房价下跌，很多之前贷款买房的人发现，即使把房子转手卖掉，也无法还清银行的贷款。于是日本就进入了所谓的低欲望、低消费的社会，经济从此不振。
日本政府为了提振经济，却采用了继续加大货币供应量的方式。比如著名的安倍经济学，其实所做的就是印更多的钱来刺激居民消费，提振经济。但这些钱除了让股市和房地产市场短暂上涨之外，对实体经济的提振作用微乎其微。另一个很重要的原因就是日本企业的竞争力下滑得非常厉害。在八九十年代甚至二十一世纪初，日本生产的商品还是市场上的抢手货，是品质的代名词。而如今在市场上已经很难看到日本产品，特别是在手机这类日常电子消费品中，中国和韩国已经完全取代了日本的地位。这其中的原因，用米塞斯的官僚体制的观点几乎可以一针见血地得到解释。日本政府给民众发钱的方式，就是给日本的企业发各种各样的补贴。然后企业再以工资和福利的形式将补贴发到雇员，也就是民众手中。看起来，这并没有什么问题。但是从利润核算机制去分析的话，就会发现，这会导致日本的企业不再受利润核算的限制，即使亏本也可以拿到政府的补贴，太久没有动力去精简员工、发展新技术和争夺市场。其实，日本的企业也越来越像官僚机构，员工实行终身雇佣制，晋升也是按资排辈。与中国的一些互联网大厂担心三十五岁就要被淘汰不同，日本的企业可以一直做到老，哪怕你无事可干，也可以给你安排一个靠窗的座位，让你坐在那里欣赏风景，然后照拿薪水，俨然就是国内体制内生活的翻版。这样的企业，怎么可能与中韩的私营企业竞争？

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去年有段时间，中国经济的坏消息不断，各种头部、房企爆雷，各种信托金融产品也在爆雷地方在读a级地方债的位机也在显现，而中国的邻国日本倒是账面上表现的不错，股市还涨回了泡沫剂，经济时代的高度，还涨回了泡沫经济时代的高度似乎是要找回失落的三四年了。是的，这连一些油管上的大无衣都调侃的说，确实是东升西降了。不过这个东指的是日本西指的是中国，日本位于中国的东面嘛，是么？还有这个证据，当然那么日本经济为什么会有失落的三十年？如今的日本经济真的有重拾雄风的吗？要回答这个问题。首先就要搞清楚是什么，造成了日本经济失落了三十年。而如今这个情况，而如今这个原因是否发生了改变，正好看到一个台湾up主在游管上的节目谈这个问题。说实话，台湾up主的节目大多风格非常幽默，通俗把一些比较复杂的问题，拿捏的通俗易懂，观看效果比一些普通比下专门讨论十四对啊，面向大陆观众的up主要轻松的多。这是这件事，首先还是要从著名的广场协议开始。一六七十年代的时候，中国大陆还是闭关锁国，或者刚刚和美国开始接触改革开放还在酝酿之中，而美国则发声了以半导体技术为主的科技革命。但是美国工人的人工成本太高，引发了美国企业的一大波产业转移。嗯，由于当时的最拥有最丰富人力资源的中国大陆，没有把经济建设和改革开放放在重点，这让日本台湾捡了一个大便宜经济飞速发展，特别是日本利用大财阀加低廉劳动力成本的优势，很快吸收了大量的美国产业转移经济迅速发展。一如改革开放之后的中国只是这样，改革开放之后，中国的经济发展历程提前预演了一遍。到了八十年代，日本的制造业俨然已经要赶超美国，成为世界第二大经济体，美国市场上充满了日本制造的商品。虽然美国的工会对此现象非常不满，但美国的民众还是被低价的日本商品所吸引。而当时的美国也和现在的美国和中国一样，当时爆发了贸易战滴滴滴滴不是。不过由于日本作为二战战败国是啊的身份，实际上是受制于美国的不拥有完全主权的国家实体。所以这场贸易战并非像现在中美贸易战那样互加关税的形式，还是美国和日本，包括德国签订一个广场协一个名为广场协议的条约，强制要求日元升值。现在魔嗯oh my god走走走，这样就可以抬高日本商品的成本增加。美国不是国产商品的竞争力，但日元升值也增加了日元的购买力，使得日本国内的消费激增。呃，日本经济并没有因为出口的下滑而受到打击。这样看，广场协议并不是日本经济泡沫破裂的元凶。真正的元凶是当时的政府借助日元升值的机会，滥发国债滥发日元，使得日元的利率极低，这刺激啊人们进行投机投资的行为。人们发现，借钱投入股市和房地产，可以在短时间内获得更多的回报。于是，整个日本都开始脱实向虚，这才是泡沫形成的真正原因可以考察几乎所有的泡沫都与人为影响和控制货币供应盒贷款利率有关。当然，泡沫就总有破灭的一天一。而泡沫破灭的时候，人们就会发现之前的繁荣，不过都是一场幻象。嗯，所有泡沫破灭带来了一个现象，就是人们会发现之前资产的价格是一个幻象。但是投资时候借下来的债务却是实实在在的。于是人们开始进入为之前的债错误买单的时时间，就像现在房价下跌，很多之前贷款买房的人发现，即使把房子转手卖掉，也无法还清银行的贷款。于是日本就进入了所谓的低欲望、低消费的社会经济从此不振。哎，日本政府为了提振经济，却是对采用的方式却是继续加大要亮的。比如著名的安倍经济学，其实所穿的就是印更多的钱来刺激居民消费，提振经济。但是这些钱除了让但这项措施却没有任何的提振作用。另一个很重要的原因就是日本企业的竞争力下滑的非常厉害。在八九十年代甚至二十一世纪初，日本的生产的商品还是市场上的抢手货，是是品质的代名词。而如今在市场上已经很难在看到日本产品呢特别是在手机这类日常电子消费品中，中国和韩国已经完全取代了日本的地位。这其中的原因，用米赛斯的官僚体制总的观点几乎可以一针见血的得到解释。日本政府给民众发钱的方式，就是给日本的企业发各种各样的补贴。然后企业再以工资和福利的形式将补贴发到雇员，也就是民众手中看起来，这并没有什么问题。但是从比赛式的利润核算机制去分析的话，就会发现，这会导致日本的企业不再说利润核算的限制，即使亏本也可以拿到政府的补贴。太久没有动力去精简员工发展开发新技术和争夺市场。啊，其实其实日本的企业也越来越像官僚机构员工实行终身雇佣制提升也是升值，也是按廉之论之排辈，与中国的一些互联网大厂，担心三十五岁就要腿修不同，日本的企业可以一直做到老，哪怕你无事可干，也可以给你安排一个靠窗的座位，让你坐那里欣赏风景，然后照拿薪水，俨然就是国内体制内生活的翻版。这样的企业，怎么可能中韩的私营企业竞争论？

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For some time last year, the bad news of China's economy continued, various head housing enterprises exploded, various trust financial products also exploded, and the risk of local debt was also emerging. At the same time, China's neighbor Japan has done quite well, and its stock market has even risen back to the height of the bubble economy, seemingly to recover the lost 30 or 40 years. Some big V on YouTube joked that it was indeed "rising from the east to the west." But the "east" here refers to Japan, and the "west" refers to China, because Japan lies to the east of China.
But why did Japan's economy have three lost decades? Is Japan's economy really back on its feet? To answer this question, we need to understand what caused Japan's economic loss for three decades. And now this situation, this reason has changed. Just happened to see a Taiwanese YouTuber on YouTube talking about this issue. To tell the truth, most of the programs of Taiwan youtubers are very humorous, and they explain some complicated issues in a simple way, and the viewing effect is much easier than that of some ordinary youtubers for mainland audiences.
Let's start with the famous Plaza Accord. In the 1960s and 1970s, the Chinese mainland was still closed to the world, or had just begun contact with the United States, and reform and opening up were still brewing, while the United States had a scientific and technological revolution dominated by semiconductor technology. But the labor cost of American workers is too high, which has triggered a big wave of industrial relocation of American enterprises. At that time, the Chinese mainland did not focus on economic construction and reform and opening up, which allowed Japan and Taiwan to pick up a big advantage and develop rapidly. In particular, Japan took advantage of the big chaebol and low labor costs, quickly absorbed a large number of American industrial transfers, and its economy developed rapidly. This is like a preview of China's economic development after the reform and opening up.
By the 1980s, Japan's manufacturing sector was poised to overtake the United States as the world's second-largest economy, and the American market was flooded with Japanese-made goods. Although American labor unions complained, the American public was attracted to low-priced Japanese goods. The United States then, like the United States and China now, had a trade war. However, because of its status as a defeated country in World War II, Japan is actually a national entity subject to the United States and does not have full sovereignty. So the trade war was not in the form of reciprocal tariffs, as the current trade war between the United States and China, but a treaty between the United States and Japan, including Germany, called the Plaza Accord, which forced the yen to appreciate. In this way, the cost of Japanese goods increased, and the competitiveness of American goods increased. But the appreciation of the yen also increased the purchasing power of the currency, leading to a surge in domestic consumption. Japan's economy has not been hit by falling exports. Viewed this way, the Plaza Accord was not the cause of the bursting of Japan's economic bubble.
The real culprit was that the government of the day took advantage of the appreciation of the yen by issuing excessive bonds and yen, making the interest rate of the yen extremely low, which encouraged people to engage in speculative investment. People found that borrowing money to invest in the stock market and real estate, you can get more returns in a short time. As a result, the whole of Japan began to move from real to virtual, which is the real reason for the formation of bubbles. Almost all bubbles are related to the artificial influence and control of the money supply and lending rates. Of course, bubbles have to burst one day. When the bubble bursts, people will find that the previous boom was an illusion. One of the things that happens when all bubbles burst is that people find that the price of the asset was an illusion, but the debt they took on to invest it was real. So people are starting to pay off their previous debt, like now that house prices are falling, many people who took out loans to buy a house find that they can't pay off the bank even if they sell the house. As a result, Japan entered the so-called low-desire, low-consumption society, and the economy has been sluggish ever since.
In an effort to boost the economy, the Japanese government has continued to increase the money supply. For example, the famous Abenomics, what it does is to print more money to stimulate household consumption and boost the economy. But the money has done little to boost the real economy beyond giving the stock and property markets a temporary boost. Another important reason is that the competitiveness of Japanese firms has fallen sharply. In the 1980s, 1990s and even the early 21st century, goods produced in Japan were still popular on the market and were synonymous with quality. Today, it is hard to see Japanese products in the market, especially in everyday consumer electronics such as mobile phones, where China and South Korea have completely replaced Japan. The reason for this can be explained almost straightforwardly by Mises's view of bureaucracy. The way the Japanese government gives money to its people is by giving various subsidies to Japanese companies. Companies then pass the subsidies on to their employees, the people, in the form of wages and benefits. That doesn't seem to be a problem. However, if we analyze from the profit accounting mechanism, we will find that this will lead to Japanese companies are no longer restricted by profit accounting, even if they lose money, they can get government subsidies, and have no incentive to streamline employees, develop new technologies and compete for markets. In fact, Japanese companies are increasingly bureaucracies, with employees employed for life and promoted according to seniority. Unlike some Internet giants in China who worry about being eliminated at the age of 35, Japanese companies can always be old, even if you have nothing to do, you can arrange a seat by the window, let you sit there to enjoy the scenery, and then get a salary, just like a copy of life in the domestic system. How can such companies compete with private companies in China and South Korea?