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政治阴影下的财富追逐:布劳德在俄罗斯的投资历程

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cheva
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接着讲昨天的故事。布劳德通过在俄罗斯收购从普通手里低价收购私有化代金券的这笔交易一战成名,在所罗门兄弟公司获得了关注,一些高层和富翁希望借他在俄罗斯做生意的经验。从这片刚刚从计划经济,僵硬体制之下解放出来的土地上获取更多的利益,给他委以更大的任务去调研俄罗斯市场,去发现那些还没有被资本市场所认识到的宝藏。但是布劳德发现在这场游戏安排当中,虽然他要承担很多的责任,但是在利益分配的部分,他却是最无足轻重的那一个。大部分利益都被其他人瓜分。他决定辞掉和所罗门兄弟公司的工作,另起炉灶单干,建立自己的投资基金。

当然他的那点名声仅限于前公司的内部,即便是一些眼光独道的富翁,对他的投资方案赞赏有家,但是也不愿意承担风险。做第一个吃螃蟹的人,要求他必须先募集2500万美元,其他人才会跟投。在经历了多次失望的谈判之后,终于有一位中东背景的富豪愿意提供用资金。布拉德的生意终于可以扬帆起航了。

不过此时,俄罗斯的政局却给生意的前景蒙上了一层阴影。因为这一年,俄罗斯迎来了苏联解体后的第一次总统大选。经历“休克疗法”的俄罗斯经济和民生并没有如预期那样翻天覆地,巨大的通货膨胀使很多普通人的积蓄一夜之间化为乌有,生活陷入困苦。尽管国内很多学者认为,这说明了“休克疗法”的失败,但这只是前苏联几十年国有计划经济体制下积累的各种社会问题的一次总爆发和总释放,并不完全是“休克疗法”的错误。当然这是题外话,普通百姓不会这样思考,他们认为这一切都是叶利钦的错。大选前,叶利钦的支持率低至可怜的百分之十,而俄罗斯共产党领导人久加诺夫的支持率却遥遥领先。这让布劳德有些迟疑。一旦久加诺夫上台——这在大选前半年看来非常可能——很难说俄罗斯共产党是否会停止私有化改革。为了搞清楚这个问题,布劳德决定亲自前往当年的达沃斯世界经济论坛,甚至因为订不到酒店房间而打地铺。在论坛期间,他参加了很多与俄罗斯有关的会议和酒会。

最终,一个酒会的主办人邀请了俄罗斯共产党的领导人久加诺夫。久加诺夫在酒会上明确表示,即使他当选,也不会重新回到苏联的老路上。他希望西方投资者能够继续在俄罗斯投资,他绝不会终止私有化改革。听了这些话,布劳德心里的石头算是落地了。他将这一消息告诉了他的合伙人,但他的合伙人显然比他更有经验,提醒他不要相信任何政客的话。如果他相信政客说的话,那他显得太不合格了。

在另一个酒会上,布劳德结识了一位年轻的俄罗斯人,他是莫斯科小有名气的商人。听说布劳德掌握一个两千万美元的基金,准备在俄罗斯投资,这位商人立即和他谈了起来,并许诺了一些合作条件。布劳德告诉他自己的担忧,如果共产党重新上台,企业是否会重新国有化,投资的风险是否会增加。那位莫斯科商人告诉他,可以放心。他指了指酒会角落里的三个人,他们分别是丘拜斯、涅姆佐夫和别列佐夫斯基。这三人是俄罗斯举足轻重的寡头商人,商人告诉布劳德,不用担心,他们会搞定一切。他们会利用掌握的所有资源、媒体、社会和企业,想方设法提高叶利钦的民意支持度。久加诺夫绝对没有任何机会。

之后的事情也确实如这位商人所说,叶利钦的民意支持率一路走高。大选前夕,叶利钦与久加诺夫势均力敌,选举进入第二轮。在媒体宣传上全面落后的久加诺夫最终在第二轮选举中败北,叶利钦继续担任俄罗斯联邦的总统。布劳德在俄罗斯的淘金之旅终于可以放心展开了。


Let's continue with yesterday's story. Browder made a name for himself in Russia by buying privatization vouchers cheaply from ordinary people, and gained attention at Salomon Brothers, where executives and wealthy individuals wanted to borrow his experience doing business in Russia. Getting more out of the land, which had just been liberated from the rigid regime of the planned economy, gave him a greater task to investigate the Russian market, to discover treasures that had not yet been recognized by the capital market. But Browder found that in the arrangement of the game, although he had to bear a lot of responsibility, but in the part of the profit distribution, he was the least important one. Most of the profits went to other people. He decided to quit his job with Salomon Brothers and start his own investment fund.

His reputation, of course, is limited to his former firm, where even some wealthy, single-minded individuals appreciate his investments but are reluctant to take risks. To be the first to eat the crab, he must raise $25 million before others will follow. After many unsuccessful negotiations, a wealthy man with Middle Eastern background was finally willing to put up the money. Brad's business is finally ready to take off.

At the moment, however, Russia's political situation is clouding the prospects for business. This was the year of Russia's first presidential election since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Russian economy and people's livelihood undergoing shock therapy have not been turned upside down as expected, and the huge inflation has wiped out the savings of many ordinary people overnight and plunged them into hardship. Although many domestic scholars believe that this shows the failure of "shock therapy", it is only a total outbreak and total release of various social problems accumulated under the former Soviet Union's decades of state-owned planned economic system, and is not entirely the fault of "shock therapy". Of course this is a digression, ordinary people don't think in this way, they think all this is Yeltsin's fault. Before the election, Yeltsin's approval rating was a dismal 10 percent, while Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov was far ahead. That gave Browder pause. Once Zyuganov comes to power, as seems likely six months before the election, it is hard to say whether the party will stop privatizing. To find out, Browder decided to go to the World Economic Forum in Davos himself, and even camped out on the floor because he couldn't get a hotel room. During the forum, he attended a number of meetings and wine receptions related to Russia.

Eventually, the host of a reception invited Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of the Russian Communist Party. Zyuganov made it clear at the reception that even if he is elected, he will not return to the old ways of the Soviet Union. He wants Western investors to continue to invest in Russia, and he will not stop privatisation. Hearing these words, Browder's heart is a stone can be dropped. He broke the news to his partner, who was obviously more experienced than he was, and warned him not to take any politician's word for it. If he believes what the politicians say, he looks too unqualified.

At another party, Browder met a young Russian who was a well-known businessman in Moscow. Hearing that Browder had a $20 million fund to invest in Russia, the businessman immediately talked to him and promised some terms of cooperation. Browder told him about his concerns about whether businesses would be renationalized and whether investments would be riskier if the Communists returned to power. The Moscow merchant told him he could rest assured. He pointed to three men in the corner of the party: Chubais, Nemtsov and Berezovsky. The three were prominent Russian oligarchs, and Browder was told not to worry that they would take care of everything. They will use all the resources at their disposal, the media, society and business to find ways to boost Yeltsin's popularity. Zyuganov has absolutely no chance.

Indeed, as the businessman said, Yeltsin's popularity soared. On the eve of the election, Yeltsin and Zyuganov were neck-and-neck, and the election went to a second round. Zyuganov, who was lagging behind in the media, eventually lost in the second round of the election, and Yeltsin continued as president of the Russian Federation. Browder's gold rush in Russia was finally safe to begin.

接着昨天的故事讲霍劳德通过在俄罗斯收购,从普通人手里低价收购私有化代金券,任何便宜。这笔交易一旦成名,在所罗门兄弟公司获得了关注,且一些高层和富翁希望凭借他在俄罗斯做生意的经验,从这片刚刚从计划经济僵硬体制下解放出来的土地上获取更多的利益,给他唯一的更大的任务去调研。俄罗斯市场发现那些还没有被资本市场所认识到的宝藏。但是布朗德发现,在整场游戏安排当中,虽然他要承担很多的责任,但是他确实最无足轻重的那一个在利益分配的地方,他却实最无足轻重的那一个大部分利益都北其他人瓜分。他决定辞掉所罗门兄弟公司工作,另起炉灶,单干成立自己的投资基金。当然,他的那点名称仅限于前公司的内部。即便是一些眼光独到的富翁,对他的投资方案赞赏有加,但是也愿意承担风险。做第一个吃螃蟹的人,要求他必须先募集两千五百万美元,其他人才会跟投在经历了多次的失望的暗争后,终于有一位中东背景的富豪愿意提供启动资金。布拉德的生意终于可以扬帆起航了。不过这个时候,俄罗斯的政却却给生的的前攻工上一层阴阴影。因为这一年,俄罗斯要迎来总统苏联解体后的第一次总统大学。而经历休克疗法的俄罗斯经济民生并没有迎来解降中那种翻天疗法的变化,反而因为巨大通货膨胀,使很多普通人的积蓄一夜之间被稀释的一干二净生活陷入困困了。反而国内很多学者认为,这段时期俄罗斯的经济和社会表现说明了休克疗法的失败。但这只是以前苏联几十年来,国有计划经济体制垄断下造成的各种社会问题的一次,总爆发和总释放并不完全是休克疗法私有化休克疗法的错。当然这是题外话,普通百姓也不会去像这样思考,他们认为这一切都是叶利钦的。错。在大选前半年,叶利钦的名义支持率只有可怜的不到百分之十。而俄罗斯共产党领导人九加洛夫夫的名义支持率却是遥遥领先。这让布劳德有些迟疑了,一旦九加洛夫上台,至少在大选前半年来看,这是非常可能的事情。那么很难说俄罗斯共产党会不会不忘初心,同时也是迎合民立而终止。私有化改革将已经私有化的企业重新收归国有。呃,这个你为了搞清楚这个问题,布劳德不请自来,没有受到邀请,也没有门票。亲自来到当年的达沃斯世界经济论坛,甚至因为订不到酒店房间而打地铺在世界经济论坛上参加了很多跟俄罗斯有关的会议和酒会,其中一个酒会主办人邀请来了俄罗斯共产党的领到人就叫洛夫。在酒会上,主要洛夫明确表示,即使他当选也不会重新回到啊苏联的道路上,他希望西方投资者能够继续在俄罗斯投资,他绝不会终止私有化改革。听了这些话,布劳德心里的石头算是落了地。他将这一消息告诉了他的合伙人,不过他的合伙人显然比他更有经验,更老道,提醒他,不要相信政客们所说的任何话,政客都是撒谎诚信的。如果他相信政客说的话呢,那他现在早就破产了。不过在另一个就会上,布劳德结识了一位年轻的俄罗斯人,他是莫斯科的小有名气的商人。听说布斯科掌握的一个两千万美元的基金,准备在俄罗斯投资就立刻和他攀谈熟络了起来。布劳德告诉他自己的担忧,如果共产党重新上台,企业肯定可能会重新国有化,他的投资有打水漂的风险。不过那位莫斯科商人告诉他,把心放在肚子里,他此来自宴会厅里,挤在角落里的三个人,他们分别是丘百斯、涅别格和呃,这三个人是俄罗斯举足轻重的寡头商人告诉布劳德说,不用担心他们会搞定一切的。他们会利用自己掌握的所有资源、媒体、社会和企业想方设法提高叶利钦的民意支持度。这加洛夫绝对没有任何的机会之后的事情也确实如这位商人所说。叶碧清的一亿支持率在此之后一路走高,到了大学前夕,已经和九加洛夫互相上下。呃呃去充了电呢大选当天双方打了一个平手选举,进入第二轮。在媒体宣传上,全面落后的九加洛夫,这一次毫无悬念的输掉了叶利钦仍然是俄罗斯联邦的总统。那布拉德在俄罗斯的淘金之旅终于可以放心的展开了。

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