以色列的战争逻辑：内塔尼亚胡对全球反对声音的回应

今天本来接着说一说三体的故事。不过，最近巴以冲突的新闻还是关注度很高。以色列在加沙地带的军事行动，虽然不能说有多么顺利，毕竟一个弹丸之地已经打了超过半年呢，而且还造成了大量的平民伤亡。哈马斯也经常发布抵抗以军的视频，各种贴身用火箭筒打以军梅卡瓦坦克的镜头，利用地道神出鬼没的袭击以军，不时有所斩获。

但总的来说，以军的军事目标还是在逐步实现的。但是克劳塞维茨曾经说过，军事是政治的延伸，虽然已经付出了惨重的伤亡，以及大量的殖民伤亡代价，在逐步实现他的军事目标。但是在政治上，以色列特别是内塔迪亚胡政府可以说是一败涂地了。即便军事目标最终达成，也无法说这是一场胜利。这方面一个非常重要的指标，就是国际上对以色列的支持几乎丧失殆尽，就连美国都变得三心二意了。在联合国安理会要求以色列在斋月期间停战的决议，美国没有行使自己的否决权，而是投出了弃权票。而且从拜登到美国国务院的高官，都曾多次表示反对内塔里亚胡进攻加沙地带的最后一个城市拉法。

不过，内塔利亚胡表示以军一定会进攻拉法。因为只有完全占领加沙地带，才能给他的这张做的稀烂的卷子画上一个句号。对遭受恐怖袭击的以色列民众一个勉强及格的交代，才能顺利延长自己的政治生命，如果不能完整的占领加沙，就停战。那么内塔里亚胡一定面临的是下台的结局。因为以军在加沙地带的军事行动，造成大量的破坏和平民伤亡，已经失去了温和派的支持。如果还不能拿下整个袈沙，那么也将失去强硬派的支持，那塔里亚湖政府就变成了孤家寡人。

昨天看新闻，内塔尼亚胡自己也认识到了他的窘境，并且竭力为自己辩护，说出来一番非常牛逼的逻辑，他说他不理解为什么现在全世界都在反对以色列，现在才仅仅半年过去了，人们已经忘记了以色列才是恐怖袭击的受害者。每个人都在谈论加沙的平民伤亡。每个人都盯着加沙地区的那点平民伤亡数字不放，却对叙利亚、也门、利比亚这些国家阿拉伯人之间的内战造成的数百万平民伤亡视而不见。接着，他又回溯到历史，说他不知道为什么，人们总是相信那些关于犹太人的最坏的谣言。这种情况从耶稣诞生之前就开始了。在中世纪，人人们居然相信犹太人用基督徒婴儿的血烤面包。在二战期间，人们也居然相信希特勒所散布的那些反犹谣言。这难道仅仅是因为无知吗？我觉得用无知无法解释这个问题，一定存在一种反犹主义的病毒。它在世界各地传播，而我们拿这种病毒没有一点办法。觉得他在说出这番话的时候，最后引出反犹病毒的说法的时候，并不是是在比喻，而是在而是指的字面上的病毒。

正好昨天还听到了梁文道一个几年前的节目，他介绍了一个犹太学者的著作，就叫《被发明的犹太人》。我们知道以色列建国这件事是犹太复国主义运动的结果。而犹太人在历史上，在他们对罗马帝国发动起义，被镇压之后，大多数人就已经离开了巴勒斯坦流散到世界各地，中间已经间隔了上千年，而以色列在此地建国的主要根据就是圣经里面的记载，说迦南地，也就是现在的巴勒斯坦是上帝许给他们的用应许之地。首先这个理由就比较牵强。其次，关于犹太人，犹太民族的定义也是有漏洞的。按照以色列的法律，只要是犹太人都有资格成为以色列的公民。而如何判定是否是犹太人？有两个标准，一个是母系判定，如果母亲是犹太人，那么子女也是犹太人。第二个就是根据宗教信仰，如果信仰犹太教，那么也被认为是犹太人。比如特朗普的女儿大美女伊万卡嫁给了嫁来一个犹太人，自己也皈依赖犹太教，那么她也被认为是犹太人。虽然他长得金发碧眼，完全没有犹太人的特征。不过现在的犹太教并不是一个热衷于传教和扩大信徒的宗教，这和基督教和伊斯兰教这样的普世宗教不同。所以，根据宗教信仰判断犹太人这条，并不会给以色列造来太大的移民负担。

但是根据这位犹太学者的研究，在历史上，犹太教曾经有一段时间是对外积极传教的，吸纳了很多不同民族成分的人入教。比如在现在的欧亚大陆交界处，乌克兰的东南部曾经有一个可萨汗国，他的统治者是突厥民族的一支，其统治范围内也是各种民族都有。而这个可萨汗国就曾经把犹太教立为国教，很多民众都诡异过犹太教。后来这个国家被俄罗斯沙皇所灭，但它的居民就成为了东欧犹太人的一个重要源头。

所以这样一来，犹太人的成分其实是相当复杂。即便历史和《圣经》的记载是确凿的。那么现在的这些犹太人也没有确凿的证据，证明自己的祖先就一定是居住在这块土地上的。而且这种搬出自古以来的做法，基本上也就是不准备讲道理的做法。

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Today, I had planned to continue the story of the Three-Body Problem. However, since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to receive a high level of attention in the news recently, I thought it was important to discuss this event first. Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip, while not entirely smooth, has been going on for more than half a year and has resulted in a large number of civilian casualties. Hamas regularly releases videos of its resistance to Israeli forces, showing them using rocket launchers against Israeli Merkava tanks and stealthy-looking attacks through tunnels that have inflicted occasional losses on Israeli troops.

Overall, however, the military objectives of the Israeli army are still being achieved. As Clausewitz said, military is an extension of politics. Despite the heavy costs, Israel has gradually achieved its military objectives while suffering major political setbacks. Netanyahu's government, in particular, has lost almost all support on the international stage, and even the United States has become hesitant. The United States abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution calling for an Israeli truce during Ramadan, rather than exercising its veto. Senior officials from Mr. Biden to the State Department have repeatedly voiced opposition to Mr. Netanyahu's assault on Rafah, the last city in the Gaza Strip.

Mr Netanyahu insists that the Israeli army will attack Rafah because only a full occupation of Gaza will bring an end to his government and give Israelis a passing grade for the horrors they have suffered. If it goes well, it may prolong his political life; If he fails to take Gaza in its entirety, a truce would mean his downfall. Israel has lost support among moderates because of the destruction and civilian casualties caused by its military operations in the Gaza Strip. If it fails to take all of Gaza, it will lose the support of the hardliners, leaving Mr Netanyahu's government alone.

In recent days, Netanyahu himself has acknowledged his quandary and defended himself vigorously. He questioned why the world is now turning against Israel, forgetting that Israel is the victim of terrorist attacks. He pointed out that people focus on civilian casualties in Gaza, but ignore the millions of civilian casualties caused by Arab civil wars in Syria, Yemen, Libya and other countries. He also looks back in history to express his puzzleover the stigmatization of Jews, from pre-nativity rumors to those spread by Hitler during World War II, which he sees not just as ignorance but as a "virus" of anti-Semitism.

Yesterday, I also heard Liang Wendao's program a few years ago, introducing a Jewish scholar's book "The Invented Jew". We know that the creation of Israel was the result of the Zionist movement. Most of the Jews left Palestine after the suppression of an uprising against the Roman Empire, and dispersed around the world for thousands of years. The main basis for the establishment of Israel here was the biblical claim that the land of Canaan (now Palestine) was promised to them by God. This argument, however, is far-fetched. Second, the definition of a Jew is flawed. Under Israeli law, anyone who is Jewish is eligible to become an Israeli citizen. There are two criteria for identifying Jews: matriarchal judgment and religious belief. But this practice does not affect Israel's immigration policy, because Judaism is not keen on proselytizing. According to the Jewish scholar's research, Judaism has been an active missionary throughout history, attracting people from many different ethnic groups. For example, the Khazarian Khanate in southeastern Ukraine adopted Judaism as the state religion, and many people converted to Judaism. This makes the composition of Jews quite complicated. Even if the biblical account is true, the Jews of today do not have sufficient evidence that their ancestors must have lived in the land. This practice of invoking "since ancient times" is basically an approach that is not prepared to be reasonable.