不一样的北洋军阀

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历史都是胜利者书写的，尤其是近代史，它与现实的政治有着千丝万缘的联系。而关于上个世纪初的近代史，由于现在海峡两岸并未实现真正的统一，所以在对很多事件的看法上，海峡两边所持的观点和立场都是截然相反的。但是对于二十世纪初的那段历史，海峡两岸的观点却是完全一致的，那就是军阀混战，民不聊生。

因为国共第一次合作发动北伐战争的目标就是要消灭北洋军阀，这也是海峡两岸两个政权共同的合法性来源。按照中国的传统，政权的合法性来源可以有两种方式，一种就是禅让，这种方式是政权的和平传承。比如昨天谈到的曹魏将皇位禅让给司马氏。另一种政权的合法性来源就是武力夺取。但并不是任何武力夺取政权的形式都是合法的，那这样一来天下就永无宁日了。武力夺取的前提条件必须是现政权已经发生天命转移，不再获得上天的眷顾，不能再让天下的百姓安居乐业。这时就要有人顺应天命，以有道伐无道。

而民国初年的情况就是当时的北洋政府是有法统的，一来它有清帝退位诏书的授权，二来也有国会的选举。而当时国共合作从南方开始北伐的国共两党，是没有这些条件的。所以它必须采取第二种方案，将北洋军阀的统治宣传为军阀混战民不聊生，已经不顺应天意了（大致如此）。这样才有进行北伐夺权的正当性和合法性。

但果真如此吗？其实真正认真看那些事件，所谓北洋军阀之间的混战和后来的国共内战以及抗战比起来，简直就像儿戏一般。血腥程度远远不及后者。很多军阀之间的战斗都只是比划一下而已，伤亡小得可怜。大多数情况下就是靠几次通电就解决了问题。胜利者入主北京，失败者往租界一躲，也能不失做一个富家翁。

如果把民国初年军阀混战和奇幻小说《冰与火之歌》，也就是大陆版美剧《权力的游戏》做比较的话，《权力多游戏》就像一场权谋巨作，而北洋时期的军阀混战就像一场儿童童话。

我们就来捋一捋民国初年的这段历史。

北洋军阀的起源

民国初年的军阀起源大都在清末。在经过庚子事件，八国联军侵华以后，本来在清帝国的《权力的游戏》中占主导地位的慈禧太后原本是倾向于保守派的。结果保守派们弄出了义和团和八国联军入侵这样的国耻之后，又收不了场。慈禧太后痛定思痛，又捡起了早年变法的老方子，推行新政。

而这些新政当中编练新军自然也是重中之重。当时拿出的方案是按照德国陆军为样板，编练二十镇的新式陆军。但是当时虚弱加上赔款负担的沉重，这一镇就相当于后来的一个师。镇下面还有若干协，就相当于若干旅和若干团。这个计划实在过于庞大。

最后朝廷的钱只够练六镇新军，而这八镇就是由袁世凯从小打仗起家时的部队扩充而来，也就是拱卫京畿的北洋新军主力。而剩下的部队就由各省各个地方自筹组织训练。

因为袁世凯是从朝廷直接拿钱资金最充裕，所以他的体系也最完全。为了培养军官，还特地专门成立了保定军官学校。而各省各个地方财力有限，财力程度不同，大多数地方是没有钱出资办军校的。

于是有些地方就选派骨干前往海外留学，学习军事。而这些军事留学生中最热门的国家就是日本。比如蒋介石就曾经去日本军校学习过。

而在清末的时候，日本是革命党的海外大本营之一。可想而知，这些新军军官去了日本除了学习军事之外，也没少受革命思想的熏陶。虽然派他们出去之前肯定是要经过层层筛选，做足政审工作，但是出去之后，这些军事留学生的思想观念如何转变就由不得国内了。

所以这些地方新军往往就成了革命党的大本营。所以后来导致新政府垮台的武昌起义正是由当时的湖北新军发动起来的。

当然从上面的清末新军的编练过程很容易看出，这种方式就和东汉末年黄巾起义爆发之后朝廷无力镇压，就要放手让各个地方的刺史自己去招兵买马一样为割据埋下了伏笔。但是在众多的新军当中，实力最强的自然还是袁世凯手中的北洋六镇。

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History is written by the victors, especially modern history, which is inextricably linked to the politics of reality. As for the modern history at the beginning of the last century, since the two sides of the Taiwan Straits have not achieved true unification, the views and positions on many events are completely opposite. But for the period of history in the early 20th century, the view on both sides of the Strait is completely the same, that is, the warlords fought and the people were miserable.

Because the goal of the first cooperation between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party in launching the Northern Expedition War was to eliminate the northern warlords, which was also the common source of legitimacy for the two regimes on both sides of the Strait. According to Chinese tradition, the legitimacy of the regime can be derived from two ways, one is the peaceful inheritance of the regime. For example, yesterday mentioned that Cao Wei will give the imperial throne to Sima family. Another source of legitimacy is the seizure of power by force. But not all forms of seizure of power by force are legitimate, and then there is no peace. The prerequisite for the seizure of power by force must be that the present regime has undergone a change of destiny, is no longer favored by heaven, and can no longer allow the people of the world to live and work in peace and contentment. At this time, it is necessary for someone to comply with the destiny of heaven, with Dao Dao.

The situation in the early years of the Republic of China was that the Beiyang government at that time had a legal system. On the one hand, it had the authorization of the imperial edict on abdication, and on the other hand, it also had the election of the National Assembly. At that time, the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, which cooperated to start the northern expedition from the south, did not have such conditions. So it must adopt the second option, which is to promote the rule of the Beiyang warlords as a war of warlords with no livelihood for the people, which is no longer in accordance with the will of God (or so). Only in this way can the northern expedition be justified and legitimate to seize power.

But is it? In fact, really look at those events seriously, the so-called melee between the northern warlords and the later civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party and the Anti-Japanese War, it is simply like a child's play. Not nearly as bloody as the latter. Many of the battles between warlords are mere gestures, with minimal casualties. In most cases, the problem is solved with a few power switches. The winner enters Beijing, the loser goes to the concession to hide, also can not lose to be a rich man.

If we compare the war between warlords in the early Republic of China and the fantasy novel A Song of Ice and Fire, the Chinese version of Game of Thrones, Game of Thrones is like a masterpiece of melee, while the war between warlords in the Beiyang period is like a children's fairy tale.

Let's take a look at the history of the early years of the Republic of China.

The origin of the Northern warlords

Most of the warlords in the early years of the Republic of China originated in the late Qing Dynasty. After the Gengzi incident and the invasion of China by the eight-Power Allied forces, Empress Dowager Cixi, who was dominant in the Game of Power of the Qing Empire, was originally inclined to be conservative. As a result, after the national humiliation of the Boxer Rebellion and the invasion of the eight-nation Allied forces, the conservatives were unable to recover. The Empress Dowager Cixi, after remedying the pain, picked up the old recipe of reform in the early years and implemented a New Deal.

Among these new policies, training the new army is naturally the most important. The plan put forward at that time was to train the new army of twenty towns according to the model of the German Army. But with its weakness and the heavy burden of reparations, the town was the equivalent of a later division. Under the town there were a number of associations, equivalent to brigades and regiments. The plan is simply too big.

In the end, the money of the court was only enough to train the six new armies, and these eight towns were expanded from the army Yuan Shikai had started fighting in a small war, that is, the main force of the Beiyang New army defending Gyeonggi. The rest of the troops were financed and trained by the provinces themselves.

Because Yuan Shikai had the most money directly from the court, his system was also the most complete. In order to train officers, Baoding Military Academy was set up specially. The financial resources of various provinces and localities are limited, and the degree of financial resources is different, and most places do not have money to fund military schools.

So some places will select cadres to study overseas to learn military. The most popular country among these military students is Japan. Chiang Kai-shek, for example, went to a Japanese military academy to study.

At the end of the Qing Dynasty, Japan was one of the overseas bases of the revolutionary Party. It can be imagined that these new army officers went to Japan in addition to learning military, but also not less influenced by revolutionary ideas. Although before sending them out, they must go through layers of screening and do sufficient political review work, but after going out, how the ideological concept of these military students will change is not up to the domestic.

Therefore, the new army in these areas often became the headquarters of the revolutionary Party. Therefore, the Wuchang Uprising, which later led to the collapse of the new government, was launched by the then Hubei New Army.

Of course, from the above process of the preparation and training of the new army at the end of the Qing Dynasty, it is easy to see that this method is just like that after the Yellow Turbans uprising broke out at the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, the court was unable to suppress it, and it was necessary to let the local rulers themselves recruit soldiers and horses. However, among the many new armies, the strongest was naturally the six towns of Beiyang in the hands of Yuan Shikai.