As the third quarter of 2024 winds down, it's time to take another look at the Steem blockchain's inflation. For previous quarters, see 2023/Q3, 2023/Q4, 2024/Q1, and 2024/Q2.
| Date | Block # | Inflation Rate | Supply | New Steem Per Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 13:53:19.192068 | 89250000 | 0.062100 | 525735697 | 89447 |
| 2024-10-15 06:13:19.192068 | 89500000 | 0.062000 | 526512095 | 89434 |
| 2024-10-23 22:33:19.192068 | 89750000 | 0.061900 | 527288386 | 89422 |
| 2024-11-01 14:53:19.192068 | 90000000 | 0.061800 | 528064565 | 89409 |
| 2024-11-10 07:13:19.192068 | 90250000 | 0.061700 | 528840629 | 89395 |
| 2024-11-18 23:33:19.192068 | 90500000 | 0.061600 | 529616574 | 89381 |
| 2024-11-27 15:53:19.192068 | 90750000 | 0.061500 | 530392396 | 89367 |
| 2024-12-06 08:13:19.192068 | 91000000 | 0.061400 | 531168092 | 89352 |
| 2024-12-15 00:33:19.192068 | 91250000 | 0.061300 | 531943656 | 89337 |
The projected STEEM per day is currently near 89,447 and expected to decline below 89,337 by the end of the quarter. The corresponding value 1 year ago was near 89,903. With the existing economic rules, this number is projected to decline until 2037, bottoming out around 22,000 and remaining below current levels for decades or centuries.
The price of STEEM has been below the SBD print threshold for the entire quarter, so - barring rule or parameter changes by the witnesses - this represents an upper limit on the daily production. If the price of STEEM crosses above the SBD print threshold, we'd expect this value to decline faster.
As before, more than half of the STEEM that is projected to exist in 30 years already exists today (roughly 54%).
For the next 13 years, STEEM's daily production schedule is at the closest to Bitcoin's as any phase of STEEM's lifecycle. From 2016 until last year, Steem's daily production was growing while Bitcoin's shrank. That will be the case again after 2037. Between now and 2037, Bitcoin and STEEM are both shrinking (though Bitcoin is still shrinking faster).
I lost about an hour troubleshooting this one because I didn't believe the numbers. They're correct, though. Basically, this is the first time that I've seen the observed inflation rate that was as high as the current inflation rate. With token burning, that seemed implausible until I finally remembered that the blockchain inflation rate changes as time passes, so I was making a bad comparison. I updated the metrics cards on the right to show min/median/max values for the blockchain inflation rate so that will be less confusing in the future.
This quarter, the blockchain inflation rate ranged between 6.32% and 6.22% and the observed inflation rate was 6.22%. Because the price of STEEM was below the SBD print threshold for the entire quarter, the current inflation rate and the virtual inflation rate would be expected to be the same - and they were.
Overall, burning and other factors reduced growth by about 1,400 STEEM per day, or 1 1/2%.
As always, I warn that these calculations represent my best understanding of the topic, but there is no authoritative documentation and they could be mistaken.
In summary, with STEEM's price consistently below the SBD print threshold, we saw low volatility for the quarter. The blockchain inflation rate dropped smoothly from 6.32% to 6.22%, and the 6.22% rate was matched by observed growth for current and virtual supplies.
Going back and looking at all available data reinforces the observation from previous months that when Steem's price is above the SBD print threshold, the price-driven movement overwhelms token burning and other factors as the dominant influence on the virtual supply, and therefore on the rate of token issuance.
In short, if we want to reduce the STEEM supply, raising the price of STEEM (and keeping it there) would be a much more efficient way to do it then by burning tokens.
Visit the /promoted page and #burnsteem25 to support the inflation-fighters who are helping to enable decentralized regulation of Steem token supply growth.