Calling the peak. Expected daily STEEM production probably peaked about 2 months ago

remlaps-lite - 8 months ago

In my opinion, a peak was passed on Nov. 10, 2023 for the expected value of daily new STEEM production and a 13 year downtrend has probably begun - 3 months ahead of "schedule".

See here for some background.

The image below shows why I say that we have already passed the peak (Based on virtual_supply data from here).

Note the peak of 89,913 for "Predicted New STEEM per day" in the middle of the graph, and notice that the predicted daily values have been lower than that and declining since January 5, when the STEEM price dropped below the SBD print threshold.

As previously described, the theoretical peak would have been expected in the next month or so, but reductions in the virtual supply between November and today (due to burning and STEEM price movement above the SBD print threshold) mean that the expected daily STEEM production value almost certainly cannot get back to its November 10 level. As shown below, the predicted peak for February is now just 89,885, which is 28 STEEM below the November 10 value.

Date	Block #	Inflation Rate	Supply	New Steem Per Day
2024-01-18 22:49:59.396422	81750000	0.065100	503957167	89883
2024-01-27 15:09:59.396422	82000000	0.065000	504737413	89884
2024-02-05 07:29:59.396422	82250000	0.064900	505517665	89885
2024-02-13 23:49:59.396422	82500000	0.064800	506297919	89885
2024-02-22 16:09:59.396422	82750000	0.064700	507078171	89884
2024-03-02 08:29:59.396422	83000000	0.064600	507858418	89883

At present, because the STEEM price is already below the SBD print threshold, burning and price movement can only decrease the expected value further.

As seen here and below, daily STEEM production can now be expected to trend down from the Nov. 10 peak until 2037 (when it will start increasing by a constant 0.95% per year).

The only caveats that I'm aware of are that:

Unless offset by burning, paying interest on SBDs in savings could increase the daily STEEM production above the expected levels.
Sometime in the distant future, (more than a century or two), daily production would be expected to catch up with current rates.
A hardfork with rule changes could change anything.

Just for fun, here's the graph of expected daily new STEEM production for the next 150 years. Even in another century and a half, the Nov. 10 peak does not get reclaimed.

Thank you for your time and attention.

As a general rule, I up-vote comments that demonstrate "proof of reading".

Steve Palmer is an IT professional with three decades of professional experience in data communications and information systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in computer science, and a master's degree in information systems and technology management. He has been awarded 3 US patents.

^{Pixabay license, source}

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