The yield spread between 10y-3m of the U.S. Treasury bonds is still minus.

Source: FRED

The inversion of them is important. But, the most important thing is the time when the inversion recovered from minus to plus.

During the last decades, when the inversion recovered, recessions occured in most cases. The probability is around 80%. So, the next recession won't likely happen this year. Maybe next year?

I hope that if it occurs, this Q4 will be the blow-off top.