Since BTC strated trading in 2011, the last phases of each cycles have lasted less than 1 year. Approximately 11 months. So, I asssume this cycle will finish September 2025.
When it comes to BTC(Bitcoin) on-chain data, I think MVRV Z Score is the most reliable indicator, compared to others.
The reason why I think this cycle officially entered the last phase is the MVRZ Score recovered above 2 the second time during this cycle.
A half year ago, I published a post warning a price correction in the near future, based on the past data. At that time, the MVRV Z Score was above 2.5. Unfortunately, it happened. Then, most crypto enthusiasts have suffered hard time for this summer.
Alright, Let's take a look at the chart again. When the MVRV Z score touched 2.0 the second time in each cyles, BTC has formed D•T(Double Top) patterns or H•S(Head&Shoulders) pattern. So, this cycle will be one of these.
So, my investment strategy for next year has 2 scenarios.
The first thing is if the crypto market cap rapidly increases in the next first quarter than expected, I'll exit considerable amount of my investment portfolio to other assets such as the dividend stocks. Because, summer seasons have been mostly bearish so far. I don't want to bet against the tendency. Anyways, I expect the market will finish September next year. (Double Top)
The second thing is if the crypto market cap slowly increases than expected, I'll exit mostly passive income such as staking profits. In this case, I expect the crypto market will end in the H&S pattern. My final exit will likely be September next year as well.
Compared to 2021, I'm capable of analyzing BTC on-chain data and macroeconomy, etc. I have more quantitative analysis tools than before. Therefore, I will never make a similar mistake like 2022. I hope you also make results in 2025