以色列走向与伊朗开战?内塔尼亚胡的新战略算盘

在上周末伊朗对美军基地的袭击引发全球金融市场动荡,比特币价格也大幅下跌。不过,伊朗这次报复行动的结果倒是挺有趣的,似乎是提前发出了预警,而且似乎私下也向美国通报过,连美国总统和股市都提前两天做了准备。袭击发动时,伊朗大约出动了无人机和一些巡航导弹。

与乌克兰情况不同,这一次北约盟国不仅仅提供防空武器,还直接参与拦截伊朗的无人机和导弹。当然,伊朗也确实表现出不想把事态扩大化的意图,在袭击发动后立即宣布结束报复行动。伊朗警告以色列不要采取报复行为,可以说是软话安抚。伊朗的目的似乎是想向国内民众交代采取了报复行动,但这种事先预警的袭击再加上美国和欧盟国家的协助拦截,根本不会对以色列造成任何明显伤害。

不过,以色列方面显然并不打算就此罢手。因为从这次事态的起因来看,以色列是挑衅的一方,他们横加了这场危机。由于以色列在加沙地区和哈马斯已经战斗了六个多月,对以色列执政者来说,这场战争已经无法再向国内交代,并且造成了大量伤亡,使以色列在国际上也承受了巨大压力。拜登政府曾多次表态不支持以色列政府的做法,而以色列现任内塔尼亚胡政府正面临政治危机,如果不是和哈马斯的战争让其以战治国的形式维系政权,恐怕早就下台了。

和平到来意味着内塔尼亚胡政府下台,但长期在加沙地带和哈马斯战斗已经带不来政治收益,压力反而越来越大,已经不再划算。所以现在以色列政府的算盘就是要打一场与伊朗面对面的正规战争。借鉴以色列在伊拉克战争中的作战经验和先进武器装备取得一场干脆利落的胜利,才能向国内派系交代。

其实内塔尼亚胡的战略算计,与1941年希特勒对付英国的战略有些类似。当时希特勒虽然占据了西欧大陆,但被英国顽强抵抗令其无计可施。原本希望通过空袭轰炸征服英国,但付出了惨重代价却没能摧毁丘吉尔的抵抗意志。希特勒认为,英国之所以不放弃希望继续抵抗,是因为在欧洲大陆上还有庞大的苏联在支持着。所以希特勒决定先发动巴巴罗萨计划,不先攻打英国而是先攻打苏联。一旦打垮苏联,英国就会因为绝望而屈服。

现在的情况也有些类似,尽管将加沙地区打成一片废墟,但哈马斯依靠地道仍在同以色列顽强抗争。加上国际压力,以色列不得不让联合国的援助物资进入,这些援助物资中相当一部分会被哈马斯获取。这样以色列在加沙地区消灭哈马斯的目标就无法实现。而哈马斯背后的主要支持者正是伊朗。如果和伊朗打一场正规战争,以色列在空军和高科技武器方面占有绝对优势,有可能迅速取胜并摆脱内忧外患。当然,这只是内塔尼亚胡的一个新战略算盘。伊朗也是中东地区的强权,他们未必会同意和以色列进行正面作战,反而可能使以色列陷入更大的泥潭。

在星期天伊朗队此别的投资不期而至，就连比特币也一拳大跌。不过伊朗这次报复的结果倒是挺搞笑的，几乎是提前发了预告我来了，而且似乎应该是私下给美国也加了底，连脑脑袋跟股瞌睡桥都提前两天给打了预防针，袭击发动时，大约出动了航架无人机和一些巡航级弹道导弹。乌克兰不同，这一次，北约盟国不但不是仅仅提供防空武器，还直接参与拦截伊朗的无人结合导弹。当然，伊朗也确实表现出想把事情闹大的议员在袭击发动后立即宣布启动结束。你警告以色列不要采取报复，可以说是软话一说了，可以说伊朗普长却不想把事情然后打致想给国对民众一个交代这种事前风暴的袭击，再加上美、欧盟国协助拦截，根本不会有任何的会给以色列造成任何明显的伤害。好的，嗯，不过以色列方面始终并不打算就此罢休。因为从这次事态的起因来看，以色列是发动挑衅的一方，他就是横着这样区区势势起起战火的方向向的。因为以色列在加沙地区和哈帕斯维尔战斗已经打了六个多月了。很明显，已经这对其切来说已经是以向战地坦显然在短期内去能够向国内交代的阵利，并已意军的行动造成大量的体面伤亡，使以色列在国际上也承受了巨大的魔打力。拜登政府哦，多次表态不支持以色列政府，而以色列现在执政的内塔量政府在瑞联恐行爆发政危机，面临临政政危机了。果不是和哈马斯的战争，让他以战治内革的形式寻觅，恐怕早就下台了。所以和平到来真就是贝塔利政府下台之时，而长期在加沙地带和哈马斯鏖战不能带来的政治收益已经越来越少，而压力却越来越大，已经不划算了。所以现在以色列政府的算就是要打一场与伊朗面对面的正规化的战争。借以色列在之前机晓中敦战争中的作战经验和后科技武器装备嗯取得一场干脆利落的胜利，才能对国雷特派有所交代。其实现在内塔里亚湖的准机，一九四四年年得希特勒战战，虽然当时希特勒已经占据西欧大陆，但是被英伦三岛无计可施。原先希望横对化空袭，轰炸是英国屈服，但是轰炸行动让俄军损失惨重，却没能摧毁丘吉尔的抵抗抑志。希欧格勒。希特勒认为，之所以英国放弃希望，放弃抵抗。就是因为巴罗马还有希望，就是欧洲大陆上还有啊一个庞大的国家是英国企不在的那就是很苏俄。所以希特勒决定在英国还没有投降之前，制定巴巴罗萨计划不侵苏联，但是打垮苏联之后，英国就会因为绝望屈服，现在的情况也是这个情况也是一样的。尽管现在将加沙地区打成一片废墟，但是哈马斯凭借地道仍然在和以色列优选或者加上国际压力，以色列不得不让联合国的援助物资进入，加上这些援助物资，肯定有相当一部分会成为哈马斯的国企。那么以色列在加沙地区消灭阿马斯的目标是无法达成的。而哈马斯背后的主要支持者就是伊朗。而如果和伊朗打一场硅谷之间的嗯正规战争，以色列在空军以及高技术武器方面是碾压式的，有可能嗯啊谢谢。当然这只是内塔里亚湖内新的算盘等领好。呃，伊朗也是中东地区的强权一霸，而且他也未必会和以色列进行堂堂正正的作战，而以色列还会陷入更大的战争泥潭当中。

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Over the weekend, Iran's attack on a U.S. military base caused turmoil in global financial markets, and the price of bitcoin also fell sharply. However, the result of the Iranian retaliatory action is quite interesting, it seems to have given advance warning, and it seems to have privately informed the United States, and even the U.S. president and the stock market have prepared two days in advance. At the time of the attack, Iran probably used drones and some cruise missiles.

Unlike in Ukraine, this time NATO Allies are not just supplying anti-aircraft weapons, but are also directly involved in intercepting Iranian drones and missiles. Of course, Iran did show that it did not want to escalate the situation, announcing the end of retaliation immediately after the attack. Iran's warning to Israel not to retaliate was soft-spoken. Iran's aim seems to be to explain to its own people that it has retaliated, but such a pre-warning attack, combined with the assistance of the United States and European Union countries to intercept it, would not have caused any visible harm to Israel.

But it is clear that the Israelis are not ready to stop there. Because from the origin of this situation, Israel is the aggressor, and they have added to the crisis. As Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza for more than six months, the war has become unaccountable to Israel's rulers at home and has caused a lot of casualties, putting Israel under enormous pressure internationally. The Biden administration has repeatedly said that it does not support the Israeli government's approach, and the current Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a political crisis, if not for the war with Hamas to maintain the form of war statecraft, it would probably be out of office.

Peace would mean the end of Netanyahu's government, but the long battle with Hamas in Gaza has brought no political gains, and the pressure is mounting that it is no longer worth it. So now the Israeli government's calculation is to fight a formal war with Iran. Drawing on Israel's combat experience and advanced weaponry in the Iraq War, a clean victory can be explained to the domestic factions.

In fact, Netanyahu's strategic calculation is similar to Hitler's strategy against Britain in 1941. At that time, Hitler occupied Western Europe, but he was unable to do anything because of the stubborn resistance of Britain. Originally hoped to conquer Britain by air bombing, but paid a heavy price but failed to destroy Churchill's resistance. Hitler believed that the reason why Britain did not give up hope to continue the resistance was that there was still a large Soviet Union on the European continent. So Hitler decided to launch the Barbarossa plan first, attacking not Britain first but the Soviet Union first. Once the Soviet Union is defeated, Britain will succumb to despair.

It is a similar story now, with Gaza in ruins but Hamas still fighting Israel with its tunnels. Coupled with international pressure, Israel has been forced to let in UN aid, much of it destined for Hamas. That would make Israel's goal of eliminating Hamas from Gaza impossible. And the main backer of Hamas is Iran. In a regular war with Iran, Israel, with its superior air force and high-tech weaponry, would be able to win quickly and escape internal and external troubles. Of course, this is just a new strategic calculation on Netanyahu's part. Iran is also a major power in the Middle East, and would not necessarily agree to fight Israel head-on, but would risk getting Israel into an even bigger quagmire.